Chisoti in Kishtwar in the Jammu Division of the UT of Jammu and Kashmir has been in the news because of the tragic Events of August 14 which took the lives of well over a 100 people. Rescue operations are still on though finding anyone alive in the Debris would be a matter.

I looked at this incident a little deeply as this area is an extremely interesting one in Geographical, Cultural and Anthropological contexts and I have visited the larger Paddar Valley and was hoping to drive all the way to Chisoti now and to Machail in the future. Most people wouldnt understand the location of Kishtwar let alone that to Chisoti so I added a Map that helps. And coming in the wake of a similar disaster at Dharali in Uttarakhand as well other incidents of Cloud Bursts and Flash Floods it got me thinking.

And when you need you understand such tragedies you need to look at the Geography of the area. The main River on the banks of which Chisoti is located is the Bhut Nallah but the Flood in wake of the Cloud burst came through the Chisoti Nallah which is a small Nallah which joins the Bhut Nallah. Just as i suspected in case of Dharali such a devastating surge of Water isnt the work of a Cloud Burst alone. Its the deadly Glacial Lakes Outflow Floods. To explain in simple terms when Glacier melts then the water flows and sometimes it forms little Lakes within the Glacial Moraines. These Lakes keep growing in size as more Water is added and sometimes when the Water pressure in the Lake grows too much the retaining Moraines give way and the Water rushes down in a great deluge.

Now in recent years this is becoming more common because of Global warming as Glaciers are melting at the faster Rate and the size of these Lakes is growing and this combined with a Cloudburst in which large quantities of Precipitation is added to the these already burgeoning Lakes makes them burst the Banks and the result is a cataclysmic tragedy like the one which occurred at Chisoti. If you look at the Map you will notice that above Chisoti the Chisoti Nallah comes down from the Glaciers around the Arjuna Peak (around 6050 M and known in the Mountaineering Circles). I think there was some Glacial Lake here which burst as a result of the Cloudburst and this caused the Event.

Scientists have for ever been highlighting the Dangers that GLOFs pose to Human populations that live in their proximity and incidentally the Himalayan Region in India is the one highlighted as the most risky. Infact there was a Study published in Nature on the subject, a link to which I'm providing in the comments.

That being said the vast devastation caused in Human lives lost has other factors involved as well. Most of the victims were Pilgrims going for the Machail Yatra and Chisoti is an important pitstop on the way as the Road which is supposed to connect Gulabgarh with Machail has been under construction for atleast a Decade. And now it had reached till Chisoti and a Bridge was/is under construction there for the onward Journey. Would like to mention that I had gone on this Road six years back and it has progressed only a few kilometers till now. Our Sarkari snails and Local Politics at work.

Apparently each Village wants to enjoy the financial Gains of being the last Roadhead on this Pilgrimage. So as of now Chisoti was enjoying that privilege. So all the Taxis were Parked at the Road head end near the point the Bridge was being built and a busy Market was there and if that wasnt enough there was a Bhandara / Langar being held there and the incident took place around what was Lunch time for many people. Hence the number of people present there were much more than there usually are. All these factors combined caused this Tragedy and may all the departed Rest in Peace.

My first point is why run a Religious Yatra in the middle of the Monsoon Season in an area susceptible to such Events. BTW its pertinent to mention that a Flash Flood had struck Chisoti in 2021 and the Bridge was washed away. Maybe the Organisers should look at changing the Dates because as and when the Road goes all the way to Machail there would be a manifold increase in the number of people joining the Yatra. Secondly the Authorities should look at limiting the number of Pilgrims as well. Thirdly they should pay more attention to Weather Forecasts and of course get a Survey done of the Glacial Lakes. But we know not to have Expectations from the Sarkar.